Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Ohio & Michigan Seen as the Two Main
Tipping Point States in the Fall Election

'The figures on the map show the percentage of the times in 10,000 simulated elections that a certain state was the Tipping-Point State. The conclusion: Michigan and Ohio are most likely to tip the election. Which makes sense: They are very middle-of-the-road states, not just politically but also demographically. If Barack Obama is to pull of winning Indiana or Missouri, say, he will probably have had to win Ohio and Michigan first--or likewise for John McCain in Pennsylvania.'
--from an article in The New Republic about an election simulator that keeps pointing to the two Midwestern football rivals as the decisive battleground states in the upcoming presidential election. Earlier, we brought you this electoral map of the potential battleground states and this roundup of stories looking at Ohio's place in the race.

10 Comments:

At 12:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So today I learned that political contributions to Democratic and Republican parties in Ohio is almost equal (thanks to one of your links). This should be a bracing fight. It will be interesting if it forces the candidates to break the "sound byte" barrier.

 
At 12:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, ALMOST as exciting as an Ohio State - Michigan game! OK, I admit that it was the first thing that entered my mind when I saw your header for today's thoughts. It DID catch my attention since it is not unusual for you to dish up sports fare a la carte.

 
At 4:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, folks, according to the great all knowing politcal editor in chief at Working with Words, McCain will win the election with no problem. I need to search my e-mails and refresh the editor's memory. I beleive i ended my take indicating this election will be much closer than expected. You basically blew that take off.

We'll see.
mfh

 
At 4:05 PM, Blogger John Ettorre said...

We will indeed see. It'll be interesting to watch. According to today's Washington Post, they're mostly in a dead heat in the battleground states. That's pretty remarkable, given all the structural advantages Obama has (youth and charisma advantage, wide media backing, major money advantage, near-hatred for Bush and Republicans in large segments of the population, relentless oil prices, images of bank runs that remind people of the Great Depression, and on and on). If Obama and the challenger party can't win with all that wind at his and their back, well...

 
At 9:03 AM, Anonymous stan said...

Heh heh. Nicely said.

I have also been chuckling at "venting your spleen" since you wrote it.

 
At 9:23 AM, Blogger John Ettorre said...

Stan...Now there's a new name in the comment section. Welcome to the party, and I hope you'll come back often. Just let us know if you prefer martinis or white wine. Or Rolling Rock beer, if that's more your taste.

 
At 12:23 PM, Anonymous stan said...

Make mine root beer and I'll treat.

 
At 2:21 PM, Blogger John Ettorre said...

I'm especially partial to diet IBC root beer myself. Though few restaurants carry it, I know I've always found a discriminating place when I see that on the menu.
And Stan, might I perhaps know you?

 
At 10:25 AM, Anonymous stan said...

Yep.

 
At 10:54 AM, Blogger John Ettorre said...

Okay, Stan, the wheels are turning. I think I figured it out, since I only know one Stan, unless of course that's a nickname. But I think it's not. I think you're Stan the walking encyclopedia on Cleveland. Either way, thanks for your comments.

 

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